Post by cadman on Sept 9, 2024 6:18:11 GMT -5
Trump now has to win Pennsylvania to be President. He had several avenues before Biden dropped out, but now there is only one, and that it to win Pennsylvania. it will most likely the state that decides who the next President is.
There is currently 7 states in play, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona. and Nevada.
Polling says Harris take Michigan and Wisconsin and gives her 251 votes.
Current numbers says Trump takes Arizona and North Carolina and gives him 246.
That leaves Pennsylvania with 19 votes, Georgia with 16 votes, and Nevada with 6 votes.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania he can't get to 270 and Harris will have exactly 270, no matter what happens in Georgia or Nevada.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he still needs to win either Georgia or Nevada.
There is still 56 days left until the election and polling can change but the window to convince voters is getting narrower every day.
I think the Numbers still favor Trump winning Pennsylvania in a close race, but the trend has been moving toward Harris and Trump does not seem to be doing anything to stop it. Georgia coming into play is not a good sign for Trump. RFK has not helped the ticket and may have hurt Trump is a couple of states.
I am looking forward will want to the debate and how that affects the polling in the next couple of weeks. I think there is two debates happening so there should be two shots for each candidate to move the poll numbers. I doubt the VP debate has any major impact unless Walz or Vance does something really stupid or really outstanding. i expect those two to just attack each other and the opposing candidate.
And we could still have some kind of October surprise with all the other stuff that has happened this election cycle.
There is currently 7 states in play, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona. and Nevada.
Polling says Harris take Michigan and Wisconsin and gives her 251 votes.
Current numbers says Trump takes Arizona and North Carolina and gives him 246.
That leaves Pennsylvania with 19 votes, Georgia with 16 votes, and Nevada with 6 votes.
If Trump loses Pennsylvania he can't get to 270 and Harris will have exactly 270, no matter what happens in Georgia or Nevada.
If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he still needs to win either Georgia or Nevada.
There is still 56 days left until the election and polling can change but the window to convince voters is getting narrower every day.
I think the Numbers still favor Trump winning Pennsylvania in a close race, but the trend has been moving toward Harris and Trump does not seem to be doing anything to stop it. Georgia coming into play is not a good sign for Trump. RFK has not helped the ticket and may have hurt Trump is a couple of states.
I am looking forward will want to the debate and how that affects the polling in the next couple of weeks. I think there is two debates happening so there should be two shots for each candidate to move the poll numbers. I doubt the VP debate has any major impact unless Walz or Vance does something really stupid or really outstanding. i expect those two to just attack each other and the opposing candidate.
And we could still have some kind of October surprise with all the other stuff that has happened this election cycle.