|
|
Post by ferris1248 on Aug 3, 2024 10:08:10 GMT -5
Is supply overtaking demand? "In a worrying development for the U.S. housing market, real estate giant Blackstone is beginning to liquidate its housing portfolio in Florida, and it’s selling properties at a loss. This trend, reported by Nicholas Gerli of Reventure Consulting, indicates potential trouble ahead for home prices, particularly in markets like St. Petersburg, Florida." "According to Nicholas Gerli, Blackstone has listed several homes for sale in St. Petersburg at prices lower than their purchase costs. One striking example is a house they bought for $380,000 two years ago, now listed for $370,000—a $10,000 loss. This property has been on the market for 170 days, signaling potential distress in the market." "Gerli emphasizes that Blackstone’s decision to sell at a loss suggests a broader market downturn. “If Blackstone is now selling, particularly here in Florida, that says that home prices might be on the way down,” he notes. This move marks a significant shift from the pandemic era when institutional investors like Blackstone were aggressively buying properties, driving up prices and reducing inventory." "During the pandemic, Wall Street investors raised billions of dollars to buy homes across America, significantly impacting the housing market. However, this trend has reversed. “Now that investors have stopped buying and started selling, it represents a huge shift in the market,” Gerli explains. This shift could signal the long-awaited correction in the overheated housing market." "Investor ownership is substantial in the U.S. housing market, with 24 million investor-owned homes out of 100 million total homes. Gerli points out that these investors, including both large corporations like Blackstone and smaller mom-and-pop investors, have played a crucial role in driving up home prices. However, the current sell-off by major investors could trigger a similar response from smaller investors." "The trend is not limited to Florida. Other markets, such as Orlando, Nashville, Dallas, and Phoenix, are also showing signs of overvaluation and increased inventory. Gerli highlights that prices in these markets are at risk of significant declines as investors continue to sell. Conversely, markets like Las Vegas, with lower inventory levels, might experience different dynamics." greenbuildingelements.com/concerning-development-blackstone-selling-florida-homes-at-a-loss/ |
|
|
|
Post by tonyroma on Aug 3, 2024 10:09:54 GMT -5
A correction is needed.
|
|
|
|
Post by ferris1248 on Aug 3, 2024 10:15:44 GMT -5
"The rise in violent weather events over the past few years are driving a decline in real estate values in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, according to a recent note from Capital Economics." "Much of that is due to surging property-insurance costs in the wake of severe storms and hurricanes. Premium growth recently reached a 20-year high, the research firm said." "Last year the US saw 28 extreme weather events where damage exceeded $1 billion, over three times the usual number in the past half-century," economist Imogen Pattison of Capital Economics said." "Already this year, there have been 15 storm events that each caused more than $1 billion in damage. Just a few weeks ago, Hurricane Beryl — which was the earliest-formed Category 5 hurricane in Atlantic history — caused an estimated $2.7 billion in damages, according to Karen Clark & Co." "That nearly $3 billion in damages from just one hurricane is ultimately what insurance companies will lose, and to make up for that and many other storm-related losses, they're jacking up insurance premiums in a big way." "The steady rise in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters has had a dramatic impact on insurance premia for US real estate as insurers have scrambled to price-in physical risks," Pattison explained. "Others have withdrawn from particular markets altogether, causing a further climb in prices amongst those left behind." www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/real-estate-values-in-texas-and-florida-are-being-hit-by-violent-weather-as-insurance-costs-spike/ar-AA1oaH1p?ocid=StaticFallback&pc=u531&cvid=7721c3fbb7d446c5a80138661656cac3&ei=8 |
|
|
|
Post by ferris1248 on Aug 3, 2024 10:17:44 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyroma on Aug 3, 2024 10:27:51 GMT -5
? Maybe if housing values drop enough more insurers will want to play ball in FL again. |
|
|
|
Post by ferris1248 on Aug 3, 2024 10:47:26 GMT -5
A big problem are the folks who bought in the last couple or 3 years. Values go down enough, they lose any equity they might of built up.
|
|
|
|
Post by biminitwisted on Aug 3, 2024 19:13:39 GMT -5
There is still ridiculously little supply in fast growing Metro Atlanta. That's a big swath of the market in the SE.
|
|
|
|
Post by stc1993 on Aug 4, 2024 18:57:16 GMT -5
Augusta and Savannah is going to be growing too. They get all these plants built.
|
|
|
|
Post by Mango Man on Aug 4, 2024 19:23:14 GMT -5
Houses were selling in St Pete for way more then their worth. A house in the hood was in the high 300's, WTF. It was like that all over. It was only a matter of time... I am glad we bought where we did when we did...  |
|
|
|
Post by 6thgen on Aug 5, 2024 9:01:07 GMT -5
Still 900 a day moving here and forecast to do the same until 2036...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2024 9:07:01 GMT -5
Florida is now a “move to” state more than ever. Constantly you see celebrities and people touting “move to the free state of Florida”.
I believe that there is going to be a housing shortage in Florida for many years to come
|
|
|
|
Post by johngalt on Aug 5, 2024 9:12:18 GMT -5
Florida is now a “move to” state more than ever. Constantly you see celebrities and people touting “move to the free state of Florida”. I believe that there is going to be a housing shortage in Florida for many years to come The question I have is, how do they afford to move here? Nothing makes sense. If everyone is selling and moving from state Z, how are they able to sell at a rate to be able to move to Florida and get a 400K mortgage? Not to mention a job that pays all the bills? |
|
|
|
Post by One Man Gang on Aug 5, 2024 9:22:43 GMT -5
Florida is now a “move to” state more than ever. Constantly you see celebrities and people touting “move to the free state of Florida”. I believe that there is going to be a housing shortage in Florida for many years to come The question I have is, how do they afford to move here? Nothing makes sense. If everyone is selling and moving from state Z, how are they able to sell at a rate to be able to move to Florida and get a 400K mortgage? Not to mention a job that pays all the bills? That is to my bewilderment as well. When you factor in taxes on a $500k home and the insurance debacle, it would seem to me that they must be coming here with 'stoopid' money or a seriously high paying job. I'm also pissed knowing that I must be a broke bitch with a low income job because I sure as fuck couldn't afford to roll in state like that. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 5, 2024 9:35:59 GMT -5
Fortunately I believe that the people who are going to move to Florida are all financially stable and independent.
For instance, Sell a home in the Midwest for $500-$600 and retire to a condo in Florida that cost them $400. The numbers are going to work for many.
The good thing for Florida is the people who are a drag on the public sector and depend upon government handouts mostly will not be able to afford to make a move to Florida. Thus eliminating an additional burden upon Florida taxpayers. All Florida has to do is to keep its policies tight on government handouts.
|
|
|
|
Post by cadman on Aug 5, 2024 9:47:08 GMT -5
Fortunately I believe that the people who are going to move to Florida are all financially stable and independent. For instance, Sell a home in the Midwest for $500-$600 and retire to a condo in Florida that cost them $400. The numbers are going to work for many. The good thing for Florida is the people who are a drag on the public sector and depend upon government handouts mostly will not be able to afford to make a move to Florida. Thus eliminating an additional burden upon Florida taxpayers. All Florida has to do is to keep its policies tight on government handouts. Association dues on that $400k condo won't be cheap even if the 500k house was paid off. Retirees are likely selling larger homes and buying smaller houses down here, that I agree with. Some families will move due to the low unemployment and job opportunities in the state. Lower income people will come, moving into rent subsidized apartments. Some will come as students and stay. |
|
|
|
Post by tampaspicer on Aug 5, 2024 10:21:31 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by richm on Aug 5, 2024 11:27:05 GMT -5
Fortunately I believe that the people who are going to move to Florida are all financially stable and independent. For instance, Sell a home in the Midwest for $500-$600 and retire to a condo in Florida that cost them $400. The numbers are going to work for many. The good thing for Florida is the people who are a drag on the public sector and depend upon government handouts mostly will not be able to afford to make a move to Florida. Thus eliminating an additional burden upon Florida taxpayers. All Florida has to do is to keep its policies tight on government handouts. Association dues on that $400k condo won't be cheap even if the 500k house was paid off. Retirees are likely selling larger homes and buying smaller houses down here, that I agree with. Some families will move due to the low unemployment and job opportunities in the state. Lower income people will come, moving into rent subsidized apartments. Some will come as students and stay. But who is building smaller homes down here? Most of what I'm seeing are 2,500-3,000 sf. The real estate stories i hear are johnny NY sells his house of $800k and moves down here - gets a house that's $650-$750k and lives ifne cause the taxes in NY were so much more than down here, he feels like he's getting a great deal. |
|
|
|
Post by cadman on Aug 5, 2024 13:29:41 GMT -5
There are a couple of senior neighborhoods up here being built. I do not know the square footage though.
But your last sentence is what I was referring to. They trade a more expensive northern house for a less expensive Florida house. Maybe I should have said larger or more expensive house for less expensive house down here.
My reference to smaller was due to the kids moving out an d they don't need 3000 sqft any more.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyroma on Aug 5, 2024 13:39:02 GMT -5
FIL’s brother and his family moved down to Sarasota few years back. Sold a 3/2 in NYC for 800 thousand. Bought a house cash 400 thousand. Retired NYPD bomb squad. Big pension, he’s living the dream.
|
|
|
|
Post by richm on Aug 5, 2024 15:00:02 GMT -5
There are a couple of senior neighborhoods up here being built. I do not know the square footage though. But your last sentence is what I was referring to. They trade a more expensive northern house for a less expensive Florida house. Maybe I should have said larger or more expensive house for less expensive house down here. My reference to smaller was due to the kids moving out an d they don't need 3000 sqft any more. For sure. Wife and I live in 1200 sf. Want an extra room when we retire - so thinking to go up to 1,500 sf. |
|
|
|
Post by richm on Aug 5, 2024 15:00:46 GMT -5
FIL’s brother and his family moved down to Sarasota few years back. Sold a 3/2 in NYC for 800 thousand. Bought a house cash 400 thousand. Retired NYPD bomb squad. Big pension, he’s living the dream. Good for him! Bomb Squad!! betcha he's one jumpy cat. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyroma on Aug 5, 2024 16:12:20 GMT -5
FIL’s brother and his family moved down to Sarasota few years back. Sold a 3/2 in NYC for 800 thousand. Bought a house cash 400 thousand. Retired NYPD bomb squad. Big pension, he’s living the dream. Good for him! Bomb Squad!! betcha he's one jumpy cat. Haha, he wasn’t cutting the wires, his dog found the bombs. He’s doing freelance work down here training bomb sniffing dogs. |
|
|
|
Post by nuevowavo on Aug 6, 2024 13:53:18 GMT -5
Hard to see a major correction without some kind of economic shock to trigger it. Lots of folks, especially at entry level, looking to buy.
|
|
|
|
Post by madm002 on Aug 6, 2024 14:24:59 GMT -5
There are a couple of senior neighborhoods up here being built. I do not know the square footage though. But your last sentence is what I was referring to. They trade a more expensive northern house for a less expensive Florida house. Maybe I should have said larger or more expensive house for less expensive house down here. My reference to smaller was due to the kids moving out an d they don't need 3000 sqft any more. I live in a over 55 community in the Stuart / PSL area. There are houses that range from 1600 to 2700sf. The majority of the houses (and there are over 700 homes in the HOA) are from 1600 to 2200 SF, with a top price of around maybe $600K, which for this area is pretty good. Majority of residents are from NY, NJ, MASS etc. As you have said they sold houses for big money up north and came here. They usually get the new pickup or car after they get the house. I know about 20 to 30 people real well and at least half are union guys that worked 30 years as a glazer, or plumber and have a strong pension. So no need for public assistance for these people. There is a limiting factor to moving to Fl. Taxes are high, insurance is high, and HOAs are a nightmare.Everyone should just stay away. I hear Georgia is nice |
|
|
|
Post by ferris1248 on Aug 6, 2024 14:31:05 GMT -5
There are a couple of senior neighborhoods up here being built. I do not know the square footage though. But your last sentence is what I was referring to. They trade a more expensive northern house for a less expensive Florida house. Maybe I should have said larger or more expensive house for less expensive house down here. My reference to smaller was due to the kids moving out an d they don't need 3000 sqft any more. I live in a over 55 community in the Stuart / PSL area. There are houses that range from 1600 to 2700sf. The majority of the houses (and there are over 700 homes in the HOA) are from 1600 to 2200 SF, with a top price of around maybe $600K, which for this area is pretty good. Majority of residents are from NY, NJ, MASS etc. As you have said they sold houses for big money up north and came here. They usually get the new pickup or car after they get the house. I know about 20 to 30 people real well and at least half are union guys that worked 30 years as a glazer, or plumber and have a strong pension. So no need for public assistance for these people. There is a limiting factor to moving to Fl. Taxes are high, insurance is high, and HOAs are a nightmare.Everyone should just stay away. I hear Georgia is nice You heard wrong. Georgia is horrible. Worst than Haiti. Stay away. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyroma on Aug 6, 2024 14:33:51 GMT -5
Georgia, the Haiti of the south, better TM that before the chamber of commerce steals it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 6, 2024 15:24:58 GMT -5
If housing prices fall it will trigger another recession UNLESS the costs of materials and labor also fall proportionally.
Used housing prices have been approximately 80% of new prices for as long as I can remember. If the prices of new homes fall below the cost then we will have a recession on our hands.
I believe the market will slow down and prices will moderate slightly but there will be no real downslide in prices.
This is unfortunate because everyone would benefit from an across the board price correction but it would have to also entail reduced material prices.
|
|
|
|
Post by luapnor on Aug 6, 2024 22:56:15 GMT -5
The question I have is, how do they afford to move here? Nothing makes sense. If everyone is selling and moving from state Z, how are they able to sell at a rate to be able to move to Florida and get a 400K mortgage? Not to mention a job that pays all the bills? That is to my bewilderment as well. When you factor in taxes on a $500k home and the insurance debacle, it would seem to me that they must be coming here with 'stoopid' money or a seriously high paying job. I'm also pissed knowing that I must be a broke bitch with a low income job because I sure as fuck couldn't afford to roll in state like that. Sell a basic 3/2 in southern California for $1.2million, its easy to waltz in and buy $600K. Just look at corrections in early 90's, they were huge. My house in SoCal lost 40% from what i paid...not from a jacked up unrealized price but from they actually sold for. The coming correction is going to be stunning. |
|
|
|
Post by One Man Gang on Aug 7, 2024 5:49:53 GMT -5
That is to my bewilderment as well. When you factor in taxes on a $500k home and the insurance debacle, it would seem to me that they must be coming here with 'stoopid' money or a seriously high paying job. I'm also pissed knowing that I must be a broke bitch with a low income job because I sure as fuck couldn't afford to roll in state like that. Sell a basic 3/2 in southern California for $1.2million, its easy to waltz in and buy $600K. Just look at corrections in early 90's, they were huge. My house in SoCal lost 40% from what i paid...not from a jacked up unrealized price but from they actually sold for. The coming correction is going to be stunning. That's what I think too. |
|
|
|
Post by Captj on Aug 7, 2024 8:01:57 GMT -5
And the construction of new apartments, condos, offices, retail and commercial stores and warehouses are exploding in all of south Florida. Somebody's buying and renting these properties. Looked at a couple of homes in a retirement community the other day and both sold immediately. Don't confuse the stock market with real life.
|
|
