Economic Facts

Talk to your brothers and sisters waiting in the check out line of a grocery store. They'll tell you the truth without having to Google anything

Or we don't shop ourselves?

From NYT. Interesting take on inflation


Labor conditions remaining strong — there’s no reason to believe that inflation will slow materially into year-end,” argued José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

The hot economy, he said, is “leading to structurally higher wage bills” for employers, who are still choosing to respond to that cost by raising prices when they can. That, Mr. Torres concludes, makes the journey to the Fed’s inflation target “almost impossible at this juncture absent a rise in unemployment.”

He thinks the Fed will begin easing rates no sooner than next year.

Most economists picking apart the data agree that a continued willingness to pay for more expensive stuff (or “price insensitivity”) accounts in part for inflation’s persistence.

Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, has asserted that the upper middle class and the most affluent are fueling price increases for services specifically and inflation in general, even as several companies report that their lower-earning customers are cutting back, seeking deals and trading down to save.

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He is projecting that there will be little progress in coming inflation readings and that there will be no rate cuts from the Fed this year.

“Because of the significant rise in the stock market and significant cash flows” from high-yield savings accounts and bonds, Mr. Slok said in a research note, “U.S. households have more money to travel on airplanes, stay at hotels, eat at restaurants, go to sporting events, amusement parks and concerts.”

I don't see a rate decrease coming this year. I've rolled a couple of CDs over so their maturity comes after the 1st of the year. If things go as I suspect, Treasuries will be strong in early 2025 and I'll go there if so.

It appears a recession will happen regardless of who's in office. No one knows the depth but I suspect a milder one. The economy has held up much better than expected and should temper the severity.

     one of the smartest things i ever heard you say / type.    honest too.

This is why I'm growing as much food as I can. We buy the majority of our groceries from Sam's Club. Wife makes a pickup order a couple times a month. I also quit eating fast food for the most part. Might grab Wendy's a couple times a month for lunch at work or an occasional Whopper meal. Can't stand McDonalds anymore.

I'm the main one responsible for cleaning out the leftovers from the fridge at home for lunch at work.

Valuations are either at an unsupportable high level, or maybe this is the "new normal".

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on almost a Trillion ... Mr. Buffet can't find anything to buy.

Nobody said it - part of the increase is due to forced minimum wage increases, which helps increase inflation. 

They do need the extra money cause of inflation.  Nasty little circle affect.

No need for graphs or talking points from politicians or the media.

Just talk to the guy buying a steak at Publix and ask him what he thinks of the price.

Anyone can say polls don't mean shit, but when the economy is on the top of every poll. It does mean something.

Bullshit.
Was the transcontinental railroad built by slaves?
How about the interstate highway system?
Were the big cities and skyscrapers built by slaves too?
You need to find a better supply of quality weed instead of that cheap homegrown stuff. 😂

Shelter cost is included. It is based on rent values. Since the CPI is how much you are spending, the value of your house does not matter. How much you would pay in rent for a similar house is a monthly expense. So home prices are included in this fashion. 

Considering inflation was at around 3.6% in 1983, that is where we are right now. But the rate is no wheres near the figures seen in 79, 80, and 81. Those were the bad years. 

Why do you think the GOP could not impeach him?