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Post by cadman on Apr 27, 2024 6:47:51 GMT -5
For some perspective: The S&P 500 is up roughly 20% in the last 12 months. Now tell us what it’s done in the last 40 months. Not nearly as rosy. It was around 3800 in January of 2021, it is now 5099.96 as of closing yesterday. That is a 34% increase in 40 months. Pretty good return. |
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 27, 2024 7:11:01 GMT -5
Pretty damn rosy.
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Post by walkerdog on Apr 27, 2024 10:13:11 GMT -5
Not to the tune of 20% though. 34% would be an average of about 7% compounded. Take out Tarp’s time period and the average for the prior almost 3 years was pretty abysmal.
A 7% average just means it’s almost back to decent.
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 27, 2024 10:20:06 GMT -5
What is (was) your expectation?
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Post by walkerdog on Apr 27, 2024 12:51:05 GMT -5
I wouldn’t consider 8% to be a great return but I do think it would be considered a decent long-term average by most investors.
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Post by Captj on Apr 27, 2024 12:57:42 GMT -5
It'll never be good for some, but great for others.
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Post by nuevowavo on Apr 27, 2024 13:00:07 GMT -5
For some perspective: The S&P 500 is up roughly 20% in the last 12 months. Inflation causes the price of everything to go up.
Inflation is generally bad for the stock market.
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Post by nuevowavo on Apr 27, 2024 13:14:48 GMT -5
Unemployment is below 4%, has been since 2018 (except for the Covid blip). Companies lay off workers for many reasons, and often in certain industries while others are fine. The economy is fine, but inflation is the problem. Prices for goods have for the most part stabilized, and even dropped in some areas, but the service sector is still an issue there. Part of the services increase is in the financial sector, caused by increased commissions due to the rising markets. Go figure. We've got 7 million new illegal aliens who aren't working (legally), on top of the 20 million who were already here. Are they being counted?
An interesting question. The unemployment number from the BLS uses population numbers from the Census Bureau, so the headline we see every month actually understates employment, since most of the illegals are not counted in the Census, but are counted as employed in the BLS Establishment Survey. The huge wave of illegal immigrants, many of whom work (you call them "illegally" working, but they work, make money and spend money, nonetheless) are an important reason why the labor market isn't any tighter and why wage pressures have moderated. And they're also a contributor to the continuing strength in consumer spending. So in addition to causing an overstatement in unemployment, they are both disinflationary and inflationary at the same time.
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Post by Tarponator on Apr 27, 2024 17:02:23 GMT -5
Of course it does. However, what is the difference between inflation and the S&P? Inflation affects every household in the US. The S&P only affects those who hold stocks. No duh. I was referring to the mathematical difference. |
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Post by walkerdog on Apr 27, 2024 17:22:44 GMT -5
He answered the question you asked.
It’s not his fault that he gave an answer that didn’t speak to what you were wanting to know. You should have been more specific in the question you asked.
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Post by tonyroma on Apr 27, 2024 17:30:35 GMT -5
He answered the question you asked. It’s not his fault that he gave an answer that didn’t speak to what you were wanting to know. You should have been more specific in the question you asked. Fortune cookie? |
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Post by walkerdog on Apr 27, 2024 17:36:04 GMT -5
Sure!
I’ll take one, if you’re handing them out!
Thanks!
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Post by pinman on Apr 27, 2024 22:01:32 GMT -5
Inflation affects every household in the US. The S&P only affects those who hold stocks. No duh. I was referring to the mathematical difference. One would think that the great orator of all things spelling, grammar, punctuation, and such would know how to properly form a question in order to receive a relevant answer. "Duh". |
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Post by Tarponator on Apr 27, 2024 22:05:11 GMT -5
Your inability to recognize the obvious is only surpassed by your inability to answer a simple question.
Neither are my fault, and the question still stands.
Incidentally, you used "orator" incorrectly. I'm not speaking. I'm writing.
Duh.
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Post by Zif on Apr 27, 2024 23:16:56 GMT -5
Your inability to recognize that you got owned is only surpassed by your arrogance and douche-baggery.
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Post by pinman on Apr 28, 2024 16:11:22 GMT -5
Your inability to recognize the obvious is only surpassed by your inability to answer a simple question. Neither are my fault, and the question still stands. Incidentally, you used "orator" incorrectly. I'm not speaking. I'm writing. Duh. So help me out. What "mathematical" difference were you talking about when you answered Throttle's post "Inflation causes the price of everything to go up" with "Of course it does. However, what is the difference between inflation and the S&P??"? |
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Post by Tarponator on Apr 28, 2024 16:19:57 GMT -5
I'm happy to help!
Let's start with a remedial 2nd grade mathematics lesson: Difference means subtraction.
Now, on to Economics 101: Subtract inflation from S&P growth and you have inflation-adjusted growth.
Answer??
Hint: It's still good news.
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Post by bottom feeder on Apr 28, 2024 16:28:00 GMT -5
The S&P 500 has performed quite well since the beginning of 2021. If you had invested $100 in the S&P 500 at the start of 2021 and reinvested all dividends, your investment would have grown to approximately $123.59 by the end of 2023. This translates to a return on investment of 23.59%, or an annualized return of about 8.27% per year during that period1.
However, it’s essential to consider inflation when evaluating investment returns. Adjusted for inflation, the real return on your original $100 investment would be roughly $9.91 in 2021 dollars, which corresponds to an inflation-adjusted return of 9.91%1.
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Post by Tarponator on Apr 28, 2024 16:28:51 GMT -5
Hooray, my faith in humanity is restored!
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 29, 2024 8:40:44 GMT -5
We've got 7 million new illegal aliens who aren't working (legally), on top of the 20 million who were already here. Are they being counted?
An interesting question. The unemployment number from the BLS uses population numbers from the Census Bureau, so the headline we see every month actually understates employment, since most of the illegals are not counted in the Census, but are counted as employed in the BLS Establishment Survey. The huge wave of illegal immigrants, many of whom work (you call them "illegally" working, but they work, make money and spend money, nonetheless) are an important reason why the labor market isn't any tighter and why wage pressures have moderated. And they're also a contributor to the continuing strength in consumer spending. So in addition to causing an overstatement in unemployment, they are both disinflationary and inflationary at the same time.
A lot of people really don't understand what would happen to the economy if we just arbitrarily deported every illegal without some sort of path to remaining and working. |
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 29, 2024 8:57:17 GMT -5
An interesting question. The unemployment number from the BLS uses population numbers from the Census Bureau, so the headline we see every month actually understates employment, since most of the illegals are not counted in the Census, but are counted as employed in the BLS Establishment Survey. The huge wave of illegal immigrants, many of whom work (you call them "illegally" working, but they work, make money and spend money, nonetheless) are an important reason why the labor market isn't any tighter and why wage pressures have moderated. And they're also a contributor to the continuing strength in consumer spending. So in addition to causing an overstatement in unemployment, they are both disinflationary and inflationary at the same time.
A lot of people really don't understand what would happen to the economy if we just arbitrarily deported every illegal without some sort of path to remaining and working. Please don't get me started. We have like 15 HR girls who do nothing but keep us legal. I have zero respect for people who hire illegals. At least in our line of work. If Americans wouldn't break the law and hire them, they wouldn't be pouring across the border. Period. |
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 29, 2024 9:03:55 GMT -5
I agree with you but that doesn't change the fact it would impact our economy far more than most people think.
And I will guarantee you in a company the size of yours, there are some illegals working.
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Post by Zif on Apr 29, 2024 9:24:57 GMT -5
Short term economic gain by a few fat cats doesn't justify selling our country out and blatantly turning a blind eye to enforcing existing laws. In addition to the fact many U.S citizens have been murdered, raped, robbed and victimized by illegal invaders.
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Post by garycoleco on Apr 29, 2024 9:27:40 GMT -5
Talk to you neighbors and coworkers abd see how they're doing financially. There's a lot of false identifiers being thrown around in this thread
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 29, 2024 9:28:33 GMT -5
I agree with you but that doesn't change the fact it would impact our economy far more than most people think. And I will guarantee you in a company the size of yours, there are some illegals working. I generally agree with you, which pisses me off. Not at you, but the fact that we can't be 100%. |
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Post by olmucky on Apr 29, 2024 9:34:44 GMT -5
Talk to you neighbors and coworkers abd see how they're doing financially. There's a lot of false identifiers being thrown around in this thread I haven’t heard one person (except for a few on here) say how amazing things are. We have lawyers, MD’s, retirees, IT dir and business owners on our block, the topic of discussion….”things are horrible right now” “times are difficult” “we’ve had to make changes” “I don’t remember it this bad even in the Carter years” etc |
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 29, 2024 9:39:55 GMT -5
Short term economic gain by a few fat cats doesn't justify selling our country out and blatantly turning a blind eye to enforcing existing laws. In addition to the fact many U.S citizens have been murdered, raped, robbed and victimized by illegal invaders. You're one of the ones I'm talking about. You want to focus on "a few fat cats" instead of realizing the impact the decreased economy would have on the everyday worker. "Fat Cats" are relative anyway. There are solutions. Quite simply our politicians do not want to solve the issue unless one side or the other gets total credit. (In case you didn't notice, I agreed with the Belizean Stud Muffin.) |
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Post by whitebacon on Apr 29, 2024 9:41:03 GMT -5
I agree with you but that doesn't change the fact it would impact our economy far more than most people think. And I will guarantee you in a company the size of yours, there are some illegals working. Let me say this, please. Our number one pipe crew, these guys lay 30' cut sanitary sewer without ever screwing up, which if you haven't done it, well it isn't for the faint of heart. All mexicans, all family, all legal. All their kids are going to college. They are more than family to me. All of them will retire millionaires, so their 401k says. My business partner's wife, or mother in law, depending on who you ask, made sure they were all legal. Almost 30 years ago. I take a lot of it personally. As well you know. |
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Post by ferris1248 on Apr 29, 2024 9:49:07 GMT -5
Talk to you neighbors and coworkers abd see how they're doing financially. There's a lot of false identifiers being thrown around in this thread I haven’t heard one person (except for a few on here) say how amazing things are. We have lawyers, MD’s, retirees, IT dir and business owners on our block, the topic of discussion….”things are horrible right now” “times are difficult” “we’ve had to make changes” “I don’t remember it this bad even in the Carter years” etc Not even one? The only comment I could agree with your neighbors about is that "we've had to make changes" and that was probably said as they were sitting around their swimming pools sipping a Belvedere or a Blanton's on the rocks or watching their 60" HD TV while they complain about the 1 1/2 inch ribeye being medium rare instead of rare. As far as “I don’t remember it this bad even in the Carter years” etc. that's probably because they're all in their 70s or 80s. |
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Post by olmucky on Apr 29, 2024 9:51:22 GMT -5
I haven’t heard one person (except for a few on here) say how amazing things are. We have lawyers, MD’s, retirees, IT dir and business owners on our block, the topic of discussion….”things are horrible right now” “times are difficult” “we’ve had to make changes” “I don’t remember it this bad even in the Carter years” etc Not even one? The only comment I could agree with your neighbors about is that "we've had to make changes" and that was probably said as they were sitting around their swimming pools sipping a Belvedere or a Blanton's on the rocks or watching their 60" HD TV while they complain about the 1 1/2 inch ribeye being medium rare instead of rare. As far as “I don’t remember it this bad even in the Carter years” etc. that's probably because they're all in their 70s or 80s. You don’t have to agree one way or another. Just like all the threads on here. I’m telling you my life and experiences. Create whatever reality gets you through the day |
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