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Post by swampdog on Feb 13, 2024 12:20:20 GMT -5
Still a lot of uncertainty for this lay person. The government says, I need to start taking an annual draw do to age. Guess they want the tax revenue…
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 13, 2024 12:33:37 GMT -5
"US consumer prices rose more than expected in January, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday morning." "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% over the previous month and 3.1% over the prior year in January, slightly higher than December's 0.2% month-over-month increase but a deceleration from December's 3.4% annual gain." "Both measures were higher compared to economist forecasts of a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.9% annual increase, according to data from Bloomberg." "On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in January climbed 0.4% over the prior month and 3.9% over last year." "Investors were closely watching the print for clues about when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. After the data's release, markets priced in a 94% chance the central bank will hold rates steady at its meeting next month, up from 84% on Monday." "This was a bad report for those betting the Fed is going to start decreasing interest rates soon," Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James, wrote in reaction to the hotter-than-expected print." Citi, meanwhile, warned that the hot inflation print will likely have an impact on the recent stock market rally. "Strong core CPI is not a game changer but likely to drive a short-term pullback," Stuart Kaiser, head of Citi's US equity trading strategy, wrote. "With strong growth data in the background, it will be hard for the Fed to cut as early as some investors hoped and raise market concerns about an overheating type scenario despite very restrictive policy." " "We should get a pullback here, maybe in the 2-4% type range, but that is somewhat limited by the fact that the economy is still quite strong," he continued." finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-consumer-prices-rise-31-in-january-defying-forecasts-for-a-faster-slowdown-133334607.html
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 13, 2024 12:35:19 GMT -5
Still a lot of uncertainty for this lay person. The government says, I need to start taking an annual draw do to age. Guess they want the tax revenue… Yep. It's MRD time. The price you pay for writing off the allotment in past years.
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Post by madm002 on Feb 13, 2024 12:53:08 GMT -5
Market is giving back a little of what it gave. What do you guys think, will it continue down?
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Post by nuevowavo on Feb 13, 2024 14:21:05 GMT -5
Market is giving back a little of what it gave. What do you guys think, will it continue down?
The sellers are those whose positions are based primarily on rate cuts. The CPI number isn't good, but it's a blip on a continuing downward trend in the inflation rate. Corporate profits are still good, as are the employment numbers, so the economy is still humming along. The PPI due later this week and PCE numbers are actually better inflation gauges, since they aren't so heavily weighted with housing costs. I think the market was due for a little correction, and this number was the catalyst to take some profits.
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 13, 2024 16:55:40 GMT -5
What nuevo said.
Lyft is going nuts.
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Post by OhMy on Feb 13, 2024 18:07:29 GMT -5
Market is giving back a little of what it gave. What do you guys think, will it continue down?
The sellers are those whose positions are based primarily on rate cuts. The CPI number isn't good, but it's a blip on a continuing downward trend in the inflation rate. Corporate profits are still good, as are the employment numbers, so the economy is still humming along. The PPI due later this week and PCE numbers are actually better inflation gauges, since they aren't so heavily weighted with housing costs. I think the market was due for a little correction, and this number was the catalyst to take some profits.
I guess we could ignore housing costs and live in our cars to make the number look better?
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Post by whitebacon on Feb 13, 2024 19:11:49 GMT -5
I'm with Ferris on rate cuts. I doubt we get more than one, if that. It's not good to root for rate cuts as the economy will be heading south when that occurs.
Inflation remains a problem. Core inflation is up like 18% since Biden. That's not sustainable. Far outpaces wage growth.
It's hard to overcome that as an investor. You're handicapped by 5-6% before the year starts.
My thoughts are there will be some more pain in equities. I'm invested more or less like Nuevo with very similar names. So we are somewhat protected.
Mutual funds may take it on chin this year,but who knows how much.
Since most of you are older than I, and have a greater risk profile, I'd be very cautious.
The biggest problem you have is your money may not keep up with inflation, in terms of relative value.
My $.02.
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Post by whitebacon on Feb 13, 2024 19:23:20 GMT -5
Of course the $35 trillion gorilla in the room will have to be addressed sooner than later. Rolling short term treasuries and such will eventually catch up with the drunken sailors in govt with the current interest rates.
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 14, 2024 7:22:22 GMT -5
OOPS.......... "Lyft Inc. projected adjusted earnings as much as 11% higher than analysts’ estimates, and reported bookings ahead of expectations. And then there was the outlook for profitability: Margins, the ride-hailing provider said in an initial press release Tuesday, were set to expand this year by an eye-watering 500 basis points. Shares surged, jumping 67% in after-hours trading." "But the projection was off. Way off." "Less than an hour after issuing the statement, Lyft Chief Financial Officer Erin Brewer joined a call with analysts and said the company is actually expecting margins to expand by 50 basis points — not 500 — acknowledging, when asked by an analyst, that the press release was incorrect. A company spokesperson later attributed the mistake to a “clerical error,” and the company eventually corrected its statement and regulatory filings." "Shares almost immediately gave up gains. By the time premarket trading opened on Wednesday morning, its rally had pared to about 20%." "It’s a “black-eye moment” for Lyft, said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, “a debacle of epic proportions.” He said by email that he’d “never seen an error like this in my almost 25 years on the Street.” finance.yahoo.com/news/lyft-soars-outlook-tops-estimates-213140053.html
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Post by swampdog on Feb 14, 2024 13:25:33 GMT -5
And it appears lift drivers may join uber in a strike, so further corrections might apply.
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 14, 2024 14:45:45 GMT -5
The sellers are those whose positions are based primarily on rate cuts. The CPI number isn't good, but it's a blip on a continuing downward trend in the inflation rate. Corporate profits are still good, as are the employment numbers, so the economy is still humming along. The PPI due later this week and PCE numbers are actually better inflation gauges, since they aren't so heavily weighted with housing costs. I think the market was due for a little correction, and this number was the catalyst to take some profits.
I guess we could ignore housing costs and live in our cars to make the number look better? Perhaps you should use your brain and make adjustments to your investments to compensate.
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Post by nuevowavo on Feb 14, 2024 14:54:23 GMT -5
The sellers are those whose positions are based primarily on rate cuts. The CPI number isn't good, but it's a blip on a continuing downward trend in the inflation rate. Corporate profits are still good, as are the employment numbers, so the economy is still humming along. The PPI due later this week and PCE numbers are actually better inflation gauges, since they aren't so heavily weighted with housing costs. I think the market was due for a little correction, and this number was the catalyst to take some profits.
I guess we could ignore housing costs and live in our cars to make the number look better?
No, you can camp out in our backyard. We'll even give you the "Friends and Family" rate.
Seriously, the housing component of the CPI is about 1/3 of the index, and it has a severe lag, since most leases are 1 year leases (continuing rents) and do not reflect current market conditions. If there was a spike in rental rates a year ago, that will still be reflected in the current CPI. And for owner-occupied housing, the BLS uses something they call "owners' equivalent rent", which is the cost inferred by the rent charged on similar homes. So as rental costs slow down, there is a major lag before it shows up in the CPI.
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 15, 2024 10:15:16 GMT -5
Anybody keep up with small caps or track the Russell?
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 19, 2024 8:49:24 GMT -5
"A pair of stronger-than-expected January inflation prints forced investors to wake up to the realization that the Federal Reserve won’t be cutting interest rates as often or as soon as they’d expected, while a pair of shaky retail sales reports suggested that the economy wasn’t as strong as thought. " "On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 1.4% after data showed the consumer price index had increased by 0.3% in January, a tenth of a point more than expected and up 3.1% from a year earlier. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% last month to stretch its 12-month gain to 3.9%—matching the December change and arresting a trend of declining inflation in place for most of the past year." finance.yahoo.com/m/ce28580b-86fb-3901-99b6-f129cf1e58d2/the-stock-market-is-melting.html
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