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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 30, 2024 9:13:25 GMT -5
You pretty much nailed it.
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Post by richm on Jan 30, 2024 9:18:49 GMT -5
Can we buy the vix or is it only for the puts snd such? Buy low sell high… You can buy the VIX. Its kinda like gambling. Now try something less complex. Lets pretend you shop. Like at Walmart. Go find the best selling item at Walmart. Then go buy shares in that company. Timing is crucial. So don't get twitchy fingers. The difference between 2% and 2000% is minutes and seconds. But don't try to tine the market. Peter Lynch saw that a new Tampax factory was being built. He bought stock in that company. It ain't rocket science. I took a bunch of classes in doing calls and such. Didn't do so well with it. Funny thing is I'm not exactly stoopid and got an MBA shortly thereafter to go w my geology sheepskin. I just seem to pick the wrong one or overanalyze. Example is when oil was down recently - I wanted to buy and my "financial adviser" advised otherwise. Not liking him too much these days. All they do is plug you into a mutual fund and let it ride. Really pissed me off when I found out.
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 30, 2024 9:36:34 GMT -5
If yours just "plugs you into a mutual Fund and lets it ride" you need a new advisor.
Mine has me in a variety of stocks, one or 2 mutual funds, 2 CD ladders, 3 annuities, and some structured notes. It's very broad based, designed to reduce risk but provide income. Primary sectors are defense, commercial REITs (primarily distribution warehousing) , retail (mostly resale, TJX, etc.), energy, a little tech. Keep in mind it's not a lot of any one stock. I may have 6 shares of Lockheed, 200 shares of TJX, 2 shares of Google, 60 shares of Deere, etc. He meets with me or calls every 3 or 4 weeks.
He also helps to determine taxable events so we don't exceed IRS limits on income. Sometimes it's better to keep something or take a loss rather than pop up in another bracket.
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Post by whitebacon on Jan 30, 2024 13:04:53 GMT -5
You can buy the VIX. Its kinda like gambling. Now try something less complex. Lets pretend you shop. Like at Walmart. Go find the best selling item at Walmart. Then go buy shares in that company. Timing is crucial. So don't get twitchy fingers. The difference between 2% and 2000% is minutes and seconds. But don't try to tine the market. Peter Lynch saw that a new Tampax factory was being built. He bought stock in that company. It ain't rocket science. I took a bunch of classes in doing calls and such. Didn't do so well with it. Funny thing is I'm not exactly stoopid and got an MBA shortly thereafter to go w my geology sheepskin. I just seem to pick the wrong one or overanalyze. Example is when oil was down recently - I wanted to buy and my "financial adviser" advised otherwise. Not liking him too much these days. All they do is plug you into a mutual fund and let it ride. Really pissed me off when I found out. Personally, I would find another advisor. Or just do it yourself. You can get account at Fidelity, for example, and just buy Mutual Funds, which, while potentially volatile, they pretty much track the equity markets and are very safe. There are a bunch of tools to use there, which they provide, for research and such. I don't know your age or risk profile, but again, feel free to reach out anytime. I won't send you a bill, promise.
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Post by whitebacon on Jan 30, 2024 13:38:33 GMT -5
You can buy the VIX. Its kinda like gambling. Now try something less complex. Lets pretend you shop. Like at Walmart. Go find the best selling item at Walmart. Then go buy shares in that company. Timing is crucial. So don't get twitchy fingers. The difference between 2% and 2000% is minutes and seconds. But don't try to tine the market. Peter Lynch saw that a new Tampax factory was being built. He bought stock in that company. It ain't rocket science. I took a bunch of classes in doing calls and such. Didn't do so well with it. Funny thing is I'm not exactly stoopid and got an MBA shortly thereafter to go w my geology sheepskin. I just seem to pick the wrong one or overanalyze. Example is when oil was down recently - I wanted to buy and my "financial adviser" advised otherwise. Not liking him too much these days. All they do is plug you into a mutual fund and let it ride. Really pissed me off when I found out. If you have an education and a skill set in your field use it to your advantage. Don't ever let some broker trump your knowledge. Personal and institutional knowledge and experience are your greatest asset.
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 31, 2024 8:02:28 GMT -5
It's been a busy earnings week. Also the Fed speaks today. "Investors looking for earnings this week to wave a magic, clarifying wand over the economic and markets picture may end up being disappointed." "Take UPS (UPS) and General Motors (GM) as two examples of earnings that muddy the economic portrait." "UPS CEO Carol Tomé characterized 2023 as a “difficult and disappointing year” as the package delivery giant forecast sales for 2024 that fell short of estimates. UPS also announced it’s cutting 12,000 workers this year." "Those jobs won’t come back, Tomé said on the company’s conference call, as the company permanently streamlines its operations and aims to use technology and other efficiency levers to be able to meet rebounding demand when it arrives. (CFO Brian Newman said volumes should rise 2% to 4% by the end of the year. They fell 7.4% in the US last quarter, and dropped 8.3% internationally)." "On the flip side, consider GM." “Consensus is growing that the US economy, the job market, and auto sales will continue to be resilient.” That’s how CEO Mary Barra kicked off the earnings call. It accompanies the automaker’s forecast for earnings per share this year of $8.50 to $9.50, compared with the $7.70 predicted by analysts." "Of course, these companies’ circumstances aren’t entirely centered on the economy. They both have idiosyncratic factors — GM’s expensive bet on electric vehicles and its Cruise self-driving unit, for example, both of which it’s managing differently this year." "Expanding the aperture, though, doesn’t necessarily help bring the economic picture into focus, as my co-anchor Josh Lipton pointed out." "Whirlpool shares tumbled after the appliance maker warned consumer spending was softening. Visa shares traded at a record intraday high after the stock shook off concerns over January weather and investors heeded the commentary from CEO Ryan McInerney: “Consumer spending remained resilient.” "Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer warned investors against expecting too much from this week’s numbers: “This week is unlikely to do much to clear up the economic or market confusion. It is one of the busiest weeks for earnings reports, the Fed is meeting, and who knows how they will guide at the press conference, and we get key economic data late in the week,” he wrote in a note sent Monday to clients." "Indeed, the above examples don’t even take into consideration the economic data, including an encouraging job openings report, aka JOLTS, or today’s pending Fed interest rate commentary, which could give hints about the pace and timing of rate cuts." "Nor do they factor in large-cap tech, which seems to exist in a parallel, AI-driven economy." "As Dwyer wrote, maybe “now is not the time to make a big call in either direction.” There’s still a lot more data to come." finance.yahoo.com/news/this-weeks-data-tells-2-conflicting-stories-about-the-economy-110014233.html
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Post by whitebacon on Feb 2, 2024 9:50:19 GMT -5
Finally closed out NVvidea today. 400% is good enough for me. Getting too old for this crap.
Waited patiently for the earnings report.
Even the tooth fairy can make money in this market.
I'm on house money like 100 times over....but even my nerves....tell me to sit down and reboot
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Post by mackeralsnatcher on Feb 2, 2024 10:38:41 GMT -5
Some of my pot stocks are starting to come back Still (since '69 or so, waiting for legalization) OR at least decriminalization. Florida's stupid laws are trash and just a money grab for the State and the Docs. IMHYEO
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 5, 2024 12:38:41 GMT -5
"Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is predicting that more small banks will likely close or merge due to commercial real estate weaknesses, but that the problem is ultimately "manageable." "The central bank official made this point during a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday night. It was Powell’s first comments about the industry following a new bout of turmoil cascading through the stocks of many regional banks." "I don't think there's much risk of a repeat of 2008," Powell said, referring to a financial crisis 16 years ago that took down some of the biggest institutions on Wall Street as well as hundreds of banks across the US." "I do think it’s a manageable problem," he added." "The new concerns about regional banks were triggered by $116 billion commercial real estate lender New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), which shocked Wall Street last Wednesday when it slashed its dividend, reported a surprise quarterly loss, and stockpiled millions for future loan losses related to commercial real estate holdings." "Regional banks are particularly vulnerable because they hold a lot more exposure to these properties than larger rivals. For banks with more than $100 billion in assets, commercial real estate loans only account for 13% of total credit. For smaller banks, they account for 44% of total bank credit." "Loans tied to offices and certain multifamily housing properties are showing the most weakness. Not all segments of commercial real estate are expected to face the same problems." "David Chiaverini, a regional and midsized bank analyst for Wedbush Securities, told Yahoo Finance that commercial real estate "will be managed better at some of the other banks" than at New York Community Bancorp, which also has a high level of exposure to rent-controlled apartment complexes in New York City. Those buildings account for 22% of its loans." finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-real-estate-a-manageable-problem-but-some-banks-will-close-powell-161201936.html
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Post by madm002 on Feb 5, 2024 14:07:13 GMT -5
You can buy the VIX. Its kinda like gambling. Now try something less complex. Lets pretend you shop. Like at Walmart. Go find the best selling item at Walmart. Then go buy shares in that company. Timing is crucial. So don't get twitchy fingers. The difference between 2% and 2000% is minutes and seconds. But don't try to tine the market. Peter Lynch saw that a new Tampax factory was being built. He bought stock in that company. It ain't rocket science. I took a bunch of classes in doing calls and such. Didn't do so well with it. Funny thing is I'm not exactly stoopid and got an MBA shortly thereafter to go w my geology sheepskin. I just seem to pick the wrong one or overanalyze. Example is when oil was down recently - I wanted to buy and my "financial adviser" advised otherwise. Not liking him too much these days. All they do is plug you into a mutual fund and let it ride. Really pissed me off when I found out. Fire him. Today. Move your money to Schwab or Fidelity. If you can get an MBA you can be a savvy investor. But stocks in an area you know, for example, I work(ed) in high tech. Its been very good to me. Or do the Ramsey plan, not going to put it out here, read his book and it is very simple. Either Schwab or Fidelity can help you find the right mutual funds. Just do not leave your money with a guy like this. Life is too short.
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Post by richm on Feb 5, 2024 16:47:29 GMT -5
I took a bunch of classes in doing calls and such. Didn't do so well with it. Funny thing is I'm not exactly stoopid and got an MBA shortly thereafter to go w my geology sheepskin. I just seem to pick the wrong one or overanalyze. Example is when oil was down recently - I wanted to buy and my "financial adviser" advised otherwise. Not liking him too much these days. All they do is plug you into a mutual fund and let it ride. Really pissed me off when I found out. Fire him. Today. Move your money to Schwab or Fidelity. If you can get an MBA you can be a savvy investor. But stocks in an area you know, for example, I work(ed) in high tech. Its been very good to me. Or do the Ramsey plan, not going to put it out here, read his book and it is very simple. Either Schwab or Fidelity can help you find the right mutual funds. Just do not leave your money with a guy like this. Life is too short. I started doing some research. We've got a few things going on and I'm starting down the road to no more financial guy. Very disappointed in the whole financial adviser thing. I'm a professional and do what i do. You'd think a finance professional would be able to help ya make money. They get paid either way, so why bother i guess.
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Post by OhMy on Feb 5, 2024 17:15:22 GMT -5
I started doing some research. We've got a few things going on and I'm starting down the road to no more financial guy. Very disappointed in the whole financial adviser thing. I'm a professional and do what i do. You'd think a finance professional would be able to help ya make money. They get paid either way, so why bother i guess. I hear you. They could lose 50% in a portfolio and still take your money for managing it. I wish some financial advisor would come out and only take a % of the money they made, not the money in the portfolio. Well at least we don't have to pay trading fees like we did 20 years ago.
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Post by nuevowavo on Feb 6, 2024 15:28:37 GMT -5
I started doing some research. We've got a few things going on and I'm starting down the road to no more financial guy. Very disappointed in the whole financial adviser thing. I'm a professional and do what i do. You'd think a finance professional would be able to help ya make money. They get paid either way, so why bother i guess. I hear you. They could lose 50% in a portfolio and still take your money for managing it. I wish some financial advisor would come out and only take a % of the money they made, not the money in the portfolio. Well at least we don't have to pay trading fees like we did 20 years ago.
By law, a fiduciary cannot share in your profits, other than fund mangers who can take a percentage of the fund's profits. So that's why you pay by the amount under management. Which is fine with me - the more I have, the more he gets paid.
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Post by madm002 on Feb 6, 2024 16:13:26 GMT -5
Finally closed out NVvidea today. 400% is good enough for me. Getting too old for this crap. Waited patiently for the earnings report. Even the tooth fairy can make money in this market. I'm on house money like 100 times over....but even my nerves....tell me to sit down and reboot I am trying to squeek out long term gains on this before I take the basis out. I hear you, trees do not grow to the skies.
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Post by ferris1248 on Feb 13, 2024 11:12:44 GMT -5
"On Tuesday, investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will consider in its next interest rate decision: January's Consumer Price Index (CPI)." "The inflation report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 2.9%, a significant deceleration from December's 3.4% annual gain, according to estimates from Bloomberg." "If those estimates hold true, it will be the lowest annual inflation rate in about three years and the first time that number will come in below 3% since March 2021." "According to Bank of America (BofA), core inflation has remained especially sticky due to high shelter prices, along with "volatile" categories like used cars, transportation services, and lodging away from home." "The good news is that we expect shelter inflation to moderate over the course of the year given the disinflation seen in asking rent inflation," BofA economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients on Monday." "Within core, BofA expects services to be boosted by larger price increases in transportation services and lodging away from home as demand for travel "started the year on a strong note." Used car prices, meanwhile, should tick down by about 1.8% on a month-over-month basis, the bank noted."
"Annual inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. But the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, has come in below that rate on a six-month annualized basis, boosting hopes the central bank could begin to cut interest rates." "Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, has tempered those expectations. He shut down the possibility of a March rate cut at the central bank's meeting last month, saying that's "probably not the most likely case." "The market largely expects the central bank to begin cutting rates at its May meeting, pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a cut." "Bank of America does not expect the first Fed rate cut to come until June." finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-expected-to-fall-below-3-for-the-first-time-since-march-2021-211718510.html
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