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Post by cadman on Aug 26, 2024 14:52:13 GMT -5
Trump was almost a 2 to 1 favorite a month ago. He was -175 at that time.
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Post by JS84 on Aug 26, 2024 15:01:56 GMT -5
Not that bookie odds aren't manipulated; I just figure they aren't likely to be manipulated by the same forces that may manipulate polling data. But who knows at the end of the day
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Post by biminitwisted on Aug 26, 2024 15:04:31 GMT -5
Not that bookie odds aren't manipulated; I just figure they aren't likely to be manipulated by the same forces that may manipulate polling data. But who knows at the end of the day It's not so much that external forces are manipulating anything, as it more about the futility of trying to predict a literally unpredictable event.
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Post by JS84 on Aug 26, 2024 15:06:29 GMT -5
That's a fair statement as well
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Post by johnnybandit on Aug 26, 2024 16:14:14 GMT -5
But you are so entertaining.... And a Vote for trump is a vote for an autocrat that will bring an end to this Democratic Republic ... He wants to be like his heoes..... Kim Jong whatever and Putin....
But it really does not matter how you vote..... Because your state is going for Harris.... Does not matter how much water you bring..... your vote is not going to count...
Lol... And you have the audacity to make fun of Illinois... You are the reason the old forum failed...pure ignorance. LMAO Thank You!!!!
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Post by johnnybandit on Aug 26, 2024 16:19:40 GMT -5
But you are so entertaining.... And a Vote for trump is a vote for an autocrat that will bring an end to this Democratic Republic ... He wants to be like his heoes..... Kim Jong whatever and Putin....
But it really does not matter how you vote..... Because your state is going for Harris.... Does not matter how much water you bring..... your vote is not going to count...
Don’t take this personal but you just proved what IF was saying about minds being destroyed on the left. I never take things said on here personally..... But thanks for your consideration...
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Post by olmucky on Aug 26, 2024 16:19:43 GMT -5
[b Let’s say it’s a mere 1.x% in the plus column for trump. And the voting plays out much like 2020, How will that affect those swing states trump lost Using polling averages, as of today with RFK dropping out. In Michigan, it would cut Harris' lead from 2% to 1%. In Wisconsin, RFK in the race helps Trump. RFK out increases Harris' lead to 1.5% In Pennsylvania it cuts Harris's lead by more than 2% and gives Trump a slight 0.2% lead. In Arizona it gives Trump another slight lead at 0.2%. in Georgia it takes Trump's lead from 1.7% to 1%. He loses votes in Georgia. In North Carolina it moves them from a tie to Trump leading by 0.9% Reality is, looking at the current poll numbers the swing states will still be tied within the margin of error. New polling should be out be week end to show what impact RFK really has, but I doubt we see much. A lot will depend on how Trump uses RFK and what happens over the next month with Trump and RFK. I think the debates will have a much bigger impact. Sorry cad i said voting not polling If it’s a +1% of kennedys voters casting in trumps favor it’ll be very close race. Like someone said “polls don’t mean shit” we’ll wait for the tally
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Post by olmucky on Aug 26, 2024 16:26:57 GMT -5
Trump was almost a 2 to 1 favorite a month ago. He was -175 at that time. I don’t know a ton about prof gambling other than what my book friend told me: the house sort of of tries to get the bulk of the monies near a 50/50 split. With the vig they come out on top Don’t know if all that applies here but I wouldn’t necessarily use Vegas for my odds to pick the president Id go with Yahoo or Bidens picks.
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Post by johngalt on Aug 27, 2024 6:49:41 GMT -5
In a three week period there was a monumental course changing debate, an assassination attempt, and two new candidates emerging from a historic resignation. If the pundits were weatherman, and were as completely wrong as they always are, would you check with them before you light out to fish? Glad you noticed that. Also, the day before that debate Harris was considered to be a huge liability and considered one of the worst picks of a VP in history. I wonder what changed?🤔 But one thing these last couple of weeks has shown is just what a bunch of propagandist and liars the media has become.
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Post by cadman on Aug 27, 2024 7:07:09 GMT -5
Trump was almost a 2 to 1 favorite a month ago. He was -175 at that time. I don’t know a ton about prof gambling other than what my book friend told me: the house sort of of tries to get the bulk of the monies near a 50/50 split. With the vig they come out on top Don’t know if all that applies here but I wouldn’t necessarily use Vegas for my odds to pick the president Id go with Yahoo or Bidens picks. The bookie takes 10% on bets like these. a -110 is actually even odds. You bet $110 and will win $100 with the $10 being the fee the bookie gets. The house doesn't care who wins or whose loses, they get paid either way. They set the odds so half the money is one one side and half on the other side.
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Post by biminitwisted on Aug 27, 2024 9:46:44 GMT -5
In a three week period there was a monumental course changing debate, an assassination attempt, and two new candidates emerging from a historic resignation. If the pundits were weatherman, and were as completely wrong as they always are, would you check with them before you light out to fish? Glad you noticed that. Also, the day before that debate Harris was considered to be a huge liability and considered one of the worst picks of a VP in history. I wonder what changed?🤔 But one thing these last couple of weeks has shown is just what a bunch of propagandist and liars the media has become. Also bullshit. Trump is Trump's problem, that's it.
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Post by olmucky on Aug 27, 2024 12:39:46 GMT -5
The entire Kennedy family hates him....
And Right now.... And for the least the the last 20 years.... RFK Senior.... Has been doing back flips in the grave... Wishing he had pulled out...
Read this today: “ With all of the scandals that the Kennedy family have lived thru, John’s ex-marital affairs, Ted’s bad driving in chappaquiddick, Bobby’s affairs to name just a few and this is the issue the family decided to throw a member of their family under the bus. Not one of the Kennedy family knows what it’s like to live a normal life, yet they tell us what to do.”
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Post by nuevowavo on Aug 27, 2024 12:55:07 GMT -5
You think Trump's handlers are gonna let that wacko out on the campaign trail? Also, the Republicans are joyous over Bobby's decision. But it was strictly transactional. Bobby asked Kamala for a position in her government if he endorsed her, and she decline. Trump enthusiastically accepted the same deal. He'll have no trouble cutting Bobby loose if he wins.
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Post by ferris1248 on Aug 27, 2024 12:59:26 GMT -5
You think Trump's handlers are gonna let that wacko out on the campaign trail? Also, the Republicans are joyous over Bobby's decision. But it was strictly transactional. Bobby asked Kamala for a position in her government if he endorsed her, and she decline. Trump enthusiastically accepted the same deal. He'll have no trouble cutting Bobby loose if he wins. Bobby will probably get the ambassadorship to Belarus.
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Post by meateater on Aug 27, 2024 13:26:05 GMT -5
just finished reading all 9 pages of comments, just based on this forum, the only one i read and go on, no facebook or other memberships. republicans are happy because they should get a couple thousand more votes in each of the swing states, democrats are sad that there party didnt accept this weirdo with open arms and if they had it would have been a 3 week media ass licking bout how great a man this guy is. if he had been a tranny or vaccine supporter dems woulda scooped him up. bad move by democrats is my ruling.
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