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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 22, 2024 11:40:07 GMT -5
Food for thought.
Will the Fed cut rates 6 times in 2024? The market sure thinks so.
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Post by nuevowavo on Jan 22, 2024 13:47:43 GMT -5
Food for thought. Will the Fed cut rates 6 times in 2024? The market sure thinks so.
Actually, bond market now says 5, first one not until May.
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Post by madm002 on Jan 22, 2024 14:02:51 GMT -5
Food for thought. Will the Fed cut rates 6 times in 2024? The market sure thinks so. I do not think 6 times. But there are alot of unknowns that could hurt inflation. Oil and gas go back up due to the crazy in the middle east for example, or China comes back on line. Or expansion of war in the middle east. Maybe 3 times?
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 23, 2024 11:04:29 GMT -5
I'm thinking maybe one in May or June but nothing after that till the election is over. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see one at all until after the election.
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Post by nuevowavo on Jan 23, 2024 14:24:52 GMT -5
I'm thinking maybe one in May or June but nothing after that till the election is over. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see one at all until after the election.
I truly believe that the Fed does not consider politics when planning rate moves. I've watched them for a living for 30 years and it was never even debated by bond market participants.
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 23, 2024 16:18:53 GMT -5
I can't disagree with you but things are different these days.
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 25, 2024 9:43:09 GMT -5
"The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.3% annualized pace in the final quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department said on Thursday." "Why it matters: It's much stronger growth than economists expected and caps a year of economic resilience as the nation avoided a projected recession." "The economy moderated in the September-December period compared to the previous quarter's 4.9% growth, which got a notable boost from companies building up inventories." "The big picture: Economic growth has been underpinned by booming consumer spending that continued even as prices for many items remain steep and interest rates rose." "That dynamic continued in the fourth quarter, which saw consumer spending boom: rising at a 2.8% annual rate, only slightly easing from the 3.1% in the previous quarter." Details: The strong inventory build-up that pushed up growth in the third quarter slowed in the most recent data." 'Meanwhile, fixed investment — spending on factories, equipment and more — rose 1.9%, up slightly from the 1.4% in the third quarter." "Housing activity, meanwhile, slowed from the prior quarter's rapid pace: 1.1% in the fourth quarter, compared to 6.7% in the third quarter." "The bottom line: The strong data shows the U.S. economy was solid in 2023 even as aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve still rippled through the economy." "That happened alongside cooling inflation — defying doomsayers who suggested a downturn was all but necessary to crush price pressures." Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates. www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-economy-booms-with-3-3-growth-in-final-quarter-of-2023/ar-BB1hflJP?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=70393ba7b6ba4eab80e3ccbef2c3806b&ei=11
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Post by cyclist on Jan 25, 2024 14:44:57 GMT -5
"The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.3% annualized pace in the final quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department said on Thursday." "Why it matters: It's much stronger growth than economists expected and caps a year of economic resilience as the nation avoided a projected recession." "The economy moderated in the September-December period compared to the previous quarter's 4.9% growth, which got a notable boost from companies building up inventories." "The big picture: Economic growth has been underpinned by booming consumer spending that continued even as prices for many items remain steep and interest rates rose." "That dynamic continued in the fourth quarter, which saw consumer spending boom: rising at a 2.8% annual rate, only slightly easing from the 3.1% in the previous quarter." Details: The strong inventory build-up that pushed up growth in the third quarter slowed in the most recent data." 'Meanwhile, fixed investment — spending on factories, equipment and more — rose 1.9%, up slightly from the 1.4% in the third quarter." "Housing activity, meanwhile, slowed from the prior quarter's rapid pace: 1.1% in the fourth quarter, compared to 6.7% in the third quarter." "The bottom line: The strong data shows the U.S. economy was solid in 2023 even as aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve still rippled through the economy." "That happened alongside cooling inflation — defying doomsayers who suggested a downturn was all but necessary to crush price pressures." Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates. www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-economy-booms-with-3-3-growth-in-final-quarter-of-2023/ar-BB1hflJP?ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=70393ba7b6ba4eab80e3ccbef2c3806b&ei=11Good stuff, wages exceed inflation. Corporations raking in profits.
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Post by nikonoclast on Jan 25, 2024 16:14:50 GMT -5
We dodged the bullet, and the chances of a significant recession anytime soon appear slim.
The economy was/is much stronger than many economists believed.
Even the prizewinning economist Paul Krugman was surprised.
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Post by PolarsStepdad on Jan 25, 2024 16:33:23 GMT -5
We dodged the bullet, and the chances of a significant recession anytime soon appear slim. The economy was/is much stronger than many economists believed. Even the prizewinning economist Paul Krugman was surprised. I'm not so sure. I think it's a massive bubble and it's liable to pop at any moment. The markets are only indicators of the wealthy doing good or really effing good. But I belive we are do a pretty substantial correction. I'm starting to see reality returning to the RV, truck, and even used boat and outboard markets. Still crazy stupid in most places but I'm seeing the cracks. And so.e kf it needs to crash. $60k for a used truck with 200k on the odometer? Yeah get bent
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Post by cadman on Jan 26, 2024 6:27:27 GMT -5
We dodged the bullet, and the chances of a significant recession anytime soon appear slim. The economy was/is much stronger than many economists believed. Even the prizewinning economist Paul Krugman was surprised. I'm not so sure. I think it's a massive bubble and it's liable to pop at any moment. The markets are only indicators of the wealthy doing good or really effing good. But I belive we are do a pretty substantial correction. I'm starting to see reality returning to the RV, truck, and even used boat and outboard markets. Still crazy stupid in most places but I'm seeing the cracks. And so.e kf it needs to crash. $60k for a used truck with 200k on the odometer? Yeah get bent I think we will have a mild recession either in 2024 or 2025. It won't last long. I think it happens after the election, no matter who wins, maybe first qtr 2025. But it will rebound quickly. Six months ago the "experts" were giving around a 80% chance of a recession in late 2023 or 2024. Now that is down to 45% or so. I would bet on the next President dealing with a recession at some point in their term.
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 26, 2024 6:30:29 GMT -5
I'm surprised by the number of people who think only the "wealthy" invest in the stock market. "The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has moved below 3% for the first time since March 2021, before the start of the central bank's rate-hiking campaign." "The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index grew 2.6% year over year in December, in line with last month's print. "Core" PCE, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew 2.9%, down from 3.2% from the month prior and below the 3.0% economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected." "Core PCE is the inflation measure mentioned most often by Fed Chair Jerome Powell." "Month over month, core PCE rose 0.2% in December, up from 0.1% in November. Importantly, annualized core PCE over the last three and six months is now below the Fed's 2% target." "Core PCE inflation has been running at an annualized pace in line with the Fed’s 2% target for seven months now," Capital Economics deputy chief US economist Andrew Hunter said in a note to clients. "This reiterates the message that there isn’t really any 'last mile' of disinflation still to achieve and that, even with real economic growth still resilient, there is plenty of scope for the Fed to start cutting interest rates soon." "Entering Friday's print, markets had now priced in a roughly 50-50 chance of a rate cut in March, per the CME FedWatch Tool. The Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates is slated for Wednesday, Jan. 31." finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-falls-below-3-for-first-time-since-march-2021-133223352.html
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Post by nuevowavo on Jan 27, 2024 14:20:21 GMT -5
For ferris: The world's most accurate economist told us his forecasts for the US economy in 2024 It hasn't been easy to anticipate the economy's moves lately. The last four years alone have brought enough twists and turns to fill an economics textbook: a pandemic, supply-chain snafus, inflation, easy then restrictive monetary policies, and much more. But throughout all that, Christophe Barraud somehow managed to stay one step ahead. Bloomberg ranked Barraud as the top forecaster of the US economy in 2022 and 2023 — and every year from 2012 through 2020. He was also the top forecaster of the Eurozone economy in 2022, and of China's economy from 2017 through 2020. If economic predictions are more art than science, Barraud is Picasso. The chief economist and strategist at Market Securities is looking to continue his hot streak of correct calls in 2024. He recently discussed with Business Insider his forecast for the US economy and how investors should approach the new year. Optimism abounded at the end of 2023 as market watchers realized that bad economic readings at the end of the year were good news for the Federal Reserve's efforts to beat inflation. Optimism abated in the first weeks of the new year, however, as investors came to terms with the fact that the Fed may not ease monetary policy anytime soon. Barraud was never as optimistic as some, even last year. "I was surprised by the resilience of the US economy because, at the beginning of 2023, I was expecting some kind of recession," he said. "At some point, it seems that the US economy was stronger than expected, especially in the third quarter. It was partly explained by transitory factors, but overall, if you just look at what happened in the fourth quarter, of course consumption slowed a bit, but it should remain quite strong and quite in line with the historical standard." Barraud believes that US GDP will end the year up 2.5%, slightly higher than the consensus expectation of 2.4%. That's not to say it will be an easy road. As Barraud pointed out, savings have dwindled, student loan payments have restarted, wages are normalizing, and credit is still tight. He's also wary of any exogenous shocks to the US economy. Barraud agrees with surveys that show geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, represent the biggest threat to the global economy... ...But if all goes well, Barraud anticipates that investor optimism that the Fed has beaten inflation will be rewarded with a pivot in monetary policy sometime this year — just not as soon as investors may want. "I won't say that the battle against inflation is over, but if there is no exogenous shock, the central scenario is to see a CPI between 2% and 2.5% around the third quarter," Barraud said. As for when the Fed may cut rates: "My guess is that they are more likely to do it in May," he said. "I think March is a bit early, especially if you look at recent comments from several policymakers. March is not excluded, but it will imply some significant deterioration of the labor market, which I don't expect right now...." www.businessinsider.com/economy-predictions-for-next-recession-inflation-gdp-federal-reserve-outlook-2024-1?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=campaign_8832598&utm_term=marketing_email&=
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Post by ferris1248 on Jan 27, 2024 14:56:40 GMT -5
I've read some of Barraud's comments in the past and I can't disagree. ( not that I would. It's his world and he knows far more than I ever will.) I've been pleasantly surprised the last 6 or 7 months. To the point I've wondered about my conservative strategy. That said, I'm comfortable getting 6 or 7% with little risk to my principal. Just had a CD mature. Put into a 5 year annuity (5.75%), compounded and no tax liability till maturity.
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Post by whitebacon on Jan 28, 2024 6:07:55 GMT -5
I'm thinking maybe one in May or June but nothing after that till the election is over. I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't see one at all until after the election.
I truly believe that the Fed does not consider politics when planning rate moves. I've watched them for a living for 30 years and it was never even debated by bond market participants.
I truly believe in unicorns and that all the 20 year olds I kick out of bed at daylight really love me. $35 trillion in the hole requires manageable rates for debt service. But I keep forgetting you skipped class the day they taught price theory.
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